Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznań
Thursday 17 Sep, 19:00 UTC · Selhurst Park
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Crystal Palace attacking output+5
1.27 xG and 1.27 goals per match over the last 27.
- Lech Poznań defensive record-12
1.27 xG and 1.27 goals conceded per match.
- Crystal Palace home record+34
14.6 scored / 7.0 conceded across 11 home matches.
- Lech Poznań away record-75
28.2 scored / 11.7 conceded across 11 away matches.
- Squad availability-14
Crystal Palace: Óscar Mingueza (out), Chadi Riad (out), Ismaïla Sarr (out), Jean-Philippe Mateta (out), Honest Ahanor (out), Ben Chilwell (out)
- Squad depth-25
Crystal Palace: 32 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/6DEF/8MID/9FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Lech Poznań: 21 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 0GK/0DEF/0MID/0FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity-41
Crystal Palace: 13 in (0 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jesurun Rak-Sakyi to Kasımpaşa, Matheus França to Alverca, Quinten Timber from Olympique Marseille
- Crystal Palace last 4 played+14
W W L L — 2.25 scored / 1.96 conceded per match, 1.88 points per game (recency weighted).
- Lech Poznań last 12 played-89
D W W W L — 2.89 scored / 1.11 conceded per match, 2.17 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 22% · form 19% · goal model 17% · results history 28% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output-43
Goal-expectancy model: Crystal Palace 1.28 xG, Lech Poznań 2.56 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1472 | 1691 |
| Record | 9W 8D 11L | 14W 3D 5L |
| Goals for / against | 34.272088857846995 / 38.55941024971289 | 55.484984826911735 / 27.95967273058472 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 46% | 54% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 11 matches, 14.552450457397589–6.983816958900385 | 11 matches, 28.226683005890205–11.69272987479386 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.1%22.1% / 22.6% / 55.2%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Óscar Mingueza Defenderout
- Chadi Riad Defenderout
- Ismaïla Sarr Attackerout
- Jean-Philippe Mateta Attackerout
- Honest Ahanor Defenderout
- Ben Chilwell Defenderout
No absentees reported.
Availability impact: 8.8% home attack, 0.0% away attack.