Atalanta vs Cagliari
Saturday 12 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Gewiss Stadium
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Atalanta attacking output-9
1.35 xG and 1.35 goals per match over the last 20.
- Cagliari defensive record+6
1.50 xG and 1.50 goals conceded per match.
- Atalanta home record+12
10.6 scored / 8.2 conceded across 10 home matches.
- Cagliari away record+47
8.9 scored / 17.4 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability+3
Atalanta: Kamaldeen Sulemana (out), Charles De Ketelaere (out), Isak Hien (out), Giorgio Scalvini (out), Thomas Kristensen (out) · Cagliari: Yerry Mina (out), M'Bala Nzola (out), Mattia Felici (out), Riyad Idrissi (out), Yael Trepy (out), Harry Winks (out)
- Squad depth-0
Atalanta: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/2DEF/11MID/4FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Cagliari: 37 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/12MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+33
Atalanta: 5 in (1 on loan), 15 out including 0 regulars — Ibrahim Sulemana to Sassuolo, Thomas Pompei from Cosenza, Mitchel Bakker to TBC · Cagliari: 25 in (1 on loan), 33 out including 0 regulars — Gennaro Borrelli to Rizespor, Kingstone Mutandwa to Servette, Yukinari Sugawara from Southampton
- Match conditionsneutral
light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.
- Referee — Alberto Arenaneutral
2.3 yellows and 0.00 reds per match across 3 tracked appointments.
- Atalanta last 6 played+22
L W W W L — 1.20 scored / 0.77 conceded per match, 2.08 points per game (recency weighted).
- Cagliari last 4 played-9
W L W W — 0.65 scored / 0.46 conceded per match, 1.61 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 59% · form 62% · goal model 52% · results history 56% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+23
Goal-expectancy model: Atalanta 1.58 xG, Cagliari 0.89 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1586 | 1452 |
| Record | 10W 4D 6L | 6W 3D 8L |
| Goals for / against | 27.091107649058493 / 16.393149560118193 | 19.65199671242283 / 26.936429463902492 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 56% | 47% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 10 matches, 10.586480536388585–8.205597973628212 | 9 matches, 8.8866392684489–17.380867267683126 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 80.0%53.2% / 25.3% / 21.5%
- T-3dcompleteness 80.0%53.2% / 25.3% / 21.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Kamaldeen Sulemana Attackerout
- Charles De Ketelaere Midfielderout
- Isak Hien Defenderout
- Giorgio Scalvini Defenderout
- Thomas Kristensen Defenderout
- Yerry Mina Defenderout
- M'Bala Nzola Attackerout
- Mattia Felici Attackerout
- Riyad Idrissi Defenderout
- Yael Trepy Attackerout
- Harry Winks Midfielderout
Availability impact: 7.4% home attack, 9.2% away attack.