Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid
Sunday 20 Sep, 14:15 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- Atlético de Madrid attacking output+36
1.95 xG and 1.95 goals per match over the last 21.
- Real Madrid defensive record+4
1.41 xG and 1.41 goals conceded per match.
- Atlético de Madrid home record+50
22.8 scored / 13.9 conceded across 9 home matches.
- Real Madrid away record-5
18.7 scored / 17.9 conceded across 9 away matches.
- Squad availability+16
Atlético de Madrid: Alexander Sørloth (out) · Real Madrid: Raúl Asencio (out), Ferland Mendy (out), Thibaut Courtois (out), Rodrygo (out), Éder Militão (out), Endrick (out), Thiago Pitarch (out), Aurélien Tchouaméni (out)
- Squad depth+1
Atlético de Madrid: 28 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Real Madrid: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 1GK/7DEF/6MID/5FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+1
Atlético de Madrid: 5 in (0 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Carlos Martín to Hajduk Split, Thomas Lemar to Elche, José María Giménez to Deportivo A Coruña · Real Madrid: 7 in (1 on loan), 6 out including 0 regulars — Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig, César Palacios to Fulham, Gonzalo García to Fulham
- Atlético de Madrid last 6 played+1
L L W D W — 1.62 scored / 1.61 conceded per match, 1.41 points per game (recency weighted).
- Real Madrid last 8 played-69
W L W W W — 2.38 scored / 0.99 conceded per match, 2.24 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 33% · form 32% · goal model 42% · results history 20% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+5
Goal-expectancy model: Atlético de Madrid 1.98 xG, Real Madrid 1.83 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | Atlético de Madrid | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1563 | 1639 |
| Record | 9W 4D 8L | 13W 3D 7L |
| Goals for / against | 41.00024190270004 / 30.45991300073717 | 53.02956044505998 / 32.3557334023539 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 54% | 60% |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 22.78560573050362–13.856717269513949 | 9 matches, 18.67187166816877–17.85101965225409 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 76.3%34.6% / 24.9% / 40.5%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Alexander Sørloth Attackerout
- Raúl Asencio Defenderout
- Ferland Mendy Defenderout
- Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeperout
- Rodrygo Attackerout
- Éder Militão Defenderout
- Endrick Attackerout
- Thiago Pitarch Midfielderout
- Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielderout
Availability impact: 1.7% home attack, 12.0% away attack.