← KICK90 board
Ligue 1T-7dlineups pending

Olympique Lyonnais vs Rennes

Saturday 19 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Groupama Stadium

Referee not appointedWeather pending
Most probable outcome
RENNES WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

31.2%
Olympique Lyonnais
25.5%
Draw
43.3%
Rennes
Home xG
1.62
Away xG
1.97
Likely score
1–1
9.3%
Completeness
76.3%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Olympique Lyonnais attacking output+19

    1.60 xG and 1.60 goals per match over the last 22.

  • Rennes defensive record-3

    1.06 xG and 1.06 goals conceded per match.

  • Olympique Lyonnais home record+24

    18.8 scored / 13.5 conceded across 11 home matches.

  • Rennes away record-70

    22.5 scored / 11.4 conceded across 8 away matches.

  • Squad availability-10

    Olympique Lyonnais: Paul Akouokou (out), Mahamadou Diawara (out), Zachary Athekame (out), Alejandro Gomes Rodríguez (out)

  • Squad depth-0

    Olympique Lyonnais: 31 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/9DEF/8MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Rennes: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity+3

    Olympique Lyonnais: 10 in (1 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Keito Nakamura from Reims, Ainsley Maitland-Niles to Everton, Mahamadou Diawara to Red Star · Rennes: 10 in (2 on loan), 12 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan Do Marcolino to Annecy, Lilian Brassier to Eintracht Frankfurt, Breel Embolo to Atlanta United

  • Olympique Lyonnais last 9 played+38

    W L W L W — 1.90 scored / 1.14 conceded per match, 1.58 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Rennes last 6 played-27

    W W W L W — 2.01 scored / 1.46 conceded per match, 2.62 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 33% · form 33% · goal model 31% · results history 26% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output-12

    Goal-expectancy model: Olympique Lyonnais 1.62 xG, Rennes 1.97 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricOlympique LyonnaisRennes
Elo15951670
Record13W 2D 7L9W 5D 1L
Goals for / against35.15255039310812 / 26.3783972384252429.259255475661856 / 15.844514593281026
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession56%47%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split11 matches, 18.789517575505563–13.5222316710258678 matches, 22.482373084215695–11.357971774240179

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

49Low

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 76.3%
    31.2% / 25.5% / 43.3%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Olympique Lyonnais
  • Paul Akouokou Midfielderout
  • Mahamadou Diawara Midfielderout
  • Zachary Athekame Defenderout
  • Alejandro Gomes Rodríguez Attackerout
Rennes

No absentees reported.

Availability impact: 6.2% home attack, 0.0% away attack.