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Ligue 1T-3hlineups confirmed

Rennes vs Olympique Marseille

Friday 11 Sep, 18:45 UTC · Roazhon Park

Ref Jeremy Stinat · 3.0 YC/matchlight rain · 19°C · 4 km/h wind
Most probable outcome
RENNES WIN

Outcome distribution

Calibrated 1X2 probabilities

60.0%
Rennes
21.4%
Draw
18.6%
Olympique Marseille
Home xG
2.05
Away xG
1.27
Likely score
1–1
9.8%
Completeness
87.5%
input coverage

Why the model says this

Ranked contributing factors

  • Rennes attacking output+12

    1.95 xG and 1.95 goals per match over the last 15.

  • Olympique Marseille defensive record+24

    1.55 xG and 1.55 goals conceded per match.

  • Rennes home record+20

    7.8 scored / 4.9 conceded across 7 home matches.

  • Olympique Marseille away record+1

    12.3 scored / 12.4 conceded across 7 away matches.

  • Squad availability+3

    Olympique Marseille: Amine Harit (out)

  • Squad depth+1

    Rennes: 26 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/8DEF/7MID/7FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · Olympique Marseille: 23 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 3GK/7DEF/5MID/6FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable

  • Recent transfer activity-24

    Rennes: 10 in (2 on loan), 13 out including 0 regulars — Jonathan Do Marcolino to Annecy, Lilian Brassier to Eintracht Frankfurt, Breel Embolo to Atlanta United · Olympique Marseille: 3 in (0 on loan), 5 out including 0 regulars — Bilal Nadir to TBC, Angel Gomes from Wolverhampton Wanderers, Amir Murillo to Beşiktaş

  • Match conditionsneutral

    light rain — goal expectancy scaled -2.0%.

  • Referee — Jeremy Stinatneutral

    3.0 yellows and 0.25 reds per match across 4 tracked appointments.

  • Rennes last 6 played+27

    W W W L W — 2.01 scored / 1.46 conceded per match, 2.62 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Olympique Marseille last 6 played+19

    L L D W W — 1.96 scored / 2.34 conceded per match, 0.75 points per game (recency weighted).

  • Model agreementneutral

    Elo 61% · form 64% · goal model 54% · results history 80% for the home win.

  • Expected attacking output+26

    Goal-expectancy model: Rennes 2.05 xG, Olympique Marseille 1.27 xG.

Most likely outcomes

Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it

Betting parameters

Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.

Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.

Team comparison

Last-10 window

MetricRennesOlympique Marseille
Elo16701519
Record9W 5D 1L7W 2D 8L
Goals for / against29.259255475661856 / 15.84451459328102627.319347957025744 / 24.85040471771284
xG for / againstDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Possession47%56%
Rest daysDATA UNAVAILABLEDATA UNAVAILABLE
Venue split7 matches, 7.754008917989807–4.8996411830666617 matches, 12.296477922205074–12.424289830746332

AI briefing

The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them

Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.

Confidence

Separation · completeness · model agreement

63Moderate

Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.

Probability evolution

How the answer moved toward kickoff

  • T-7dcompleteness 76.3%
    58.2% / 22.2% / 19.7%
  • T-3dcompleteness 76.3%
    58.2% / 22.2% / 19.7%
  • T-24hcompleteness 83.8%
    59.5% / 21.7% / 18.9%
  • T-3hcompleteness 87.5%
    60.0% / 21.4% / 18.6%

Squad availability

Weighted by importance and output

Rennes

No absentees reported.

Olympique Marseille
  • Amine Harit Attackerout

Availability impact: 0.0% home attack, 1.7% away attack.