FC Twente vs ADO Den Haag
Saturday 12 Sep, 14:30 UTC · De Grolsch Veste
Outcome distribution
Calibrated 1X2 probabilities
Why the model says this
Ranked contributing factors
- FC Twente attacking output+43
2.19 xG and 2.19 goals per match over the last 17.
- ADO Den Haag defensive record+61
2.80 xG and 2.80 goals conceded per match.
- FC Twente home record+57
20.8 scored / 10.5 conceded across 9 home matches.
- ADO Den Haag away record+66
3.1 scored / 7.0 conceded across 3 away matches.
- Squad availability+3
FC Twente: Stav Lemkin (out), Kristian Hlynsson (out) · ADO Den Haag: Matej Sin (out), Cameron Peupion (out), Nigel Thomas (out)
- Squad depth+1
FC Twente: 30 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable · ADO Den Haag: 29 registered, 0 regular starters, fit cover 4GK/8DEF/5MID/8FWD, 0% of squad minutes unavailable
- Recent transfer activity+4
FC Twente: 7 in (2 on loan), 9 out including 0 regulars — Issam El Maach to TBC, Michał Rosiak from Śląsk Wrocław, Taylor Booth to Real Salt Lake · ADO Den Haag: 10 in (1 on loan), 7 out including 0 regulars — Matej Sin from AZ Alkmaar, Jonas Jensen-Abbew from AGF, Diogo Tomas to AIK
- Match conditionsneutral
overcast clouds — goal expectancy scaled 0.0%.
- Referee — Jannick van der Laanneutral
2.8 yellows and 0.13 reds per match across 8 tracked appointments.
- FC Twente last 8 played+50
W D W W D — 2.23 scored / 1.23 conceded per match, 1.85 points per game (recency weighted).
- ADO Den Haag last 5 played+78
L D L L L — 1.24 scored / 2.80 conceded per match, 0.21 points per game (recency weighted).
- Model agreementneutral
Elo 80% · form 82% · goal model 77% · results history 82% for the home win.
- Expected attacking output+70
Goal-expectancy model: FC Twente 3.19 xG, ADO Den Haag 1.10 xG.
Most likely outcomes
Ranked by model probability · confidence is per outcome, from the raw sample behind it
Betting parameters
Full-time 1X2 and derived result combinations.
Probabilities are model estimates from the same score distribution as the 1X2 line. KICK90 publishes likelihoods, not tips.
Team comparison
Last-10 window
| Metric | FC Twente | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1654 | 1220 |
| Record | 9W 6D 3L | 0W 1D 4L |
| Goals for / against | 37.24146616118113 / 19.726932139788953 | 6.103664944634675 / 14.000899674335484 |
| xG for / against | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Possession | 56% | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Rest days | DATA UNAVAILABLE | DATA UNAVAILABLE |
| Venue split | 9 matches, 20.810743992131886–10.499785200865256 | 3 matches, 3.062517880498433–7.006944225831116 |
AI briefing
The model explains the numbers — it does not produce them
Generate a written analyst briefing that separates verified data from interpretation.
Confidence
Separation · completeness · model agreement
Confidence reflects how strongly the evidence points one way — not how attractive the outcome is. It rises as lineups confirm and data completeness improves.
Probability evolution
How the answer moved toward kickoff
- T-7dcompleteness 68.1%74.0% / 17.0% / 8.9%
- T-3dcompleteness 75.6%75.2% / 16.4% / 8.4%
- T-24hcompleteness 75.6%75.2% / 16.4% / 8.4%
Squad availability
Weighted by importance and output
- Stav Lemkin Defenderout
- Kristian Hlynsson Midfielderout
- Matej Sin Midfielderout
- Cameron Peupion Attackerout
- Nigel Thomas Attackerout
Availability impact: 3.0% home attack, 4.9% away attack.